The payments sector is heading into 2026 with a very different set of priorities to the ones that have defined the last decade, writes Stuart Neal, CEO, Boku.
Merchants have now moved past the race to add ever more payment methods and markets, and are asking a sharper question: which partners can actually move the needle on conversion, customer lifetime value and profitable growth?
The next 12 months will be shaped by payments providers who can turn their reach into repeatable, measurable performance at the checkout for merchants. Here are my predictions for how 2026 will unfold in payments.
Local-first cross-border commerce
Cross-border commerce is going to shift to a ‘local-first’ mindset in 2026. More merchants are now realising that a card-centric approach leaves huge gaps in opportunity, particularly in regions where consumers favour local payment methods (LPMs). If you can’t support how people want to pay on the ground, you won’t be able to build meaningful, sustainable growth in those markets.
And with global payment volumes projected to climb into the trillions over the coming years, merchants will need infrastructure that makes the complexity of cross-border commerce disappear. As such, payments providers that can normalise very different local realities – regulation, settlement, FX and tax, for example – into a single, reliable experience will enable brands to enter new markets with far greater speed and confidence.
This shift can already be seen in how high-growth brands approach expansion. When a company like Canva looks to expand in APAC, where LPMs are hugely popular, it can’t rely on cards alone. By plugging in relevant LPMs – such as MoMo in Vietnam – they make themselves instantly accessible to millions of users who would never have completed a card-based checkout. That’s the 2026 blueprint for cross-border growth: design payments to be local from day one.
Unblocking agentic commerce’s big bottleneck: payments
Agentic commerce’s biggest blindspot is payments. The industry conversation has focused on what AI agents might be able to discover, compare and decide, but far less on how those same agents will actually complete a transaction end-to-end on behalf of a customer. Until that bottleneck is unblocked, the promise of autonomous ecommerce remains more theoretical than commercial.
The constraint lies in the plumbing. Today’s card-based infrastructure assumes a human is present to enter card details, pass 3DS checks and respond to step-up authentication. AI agents have none of these attributes, and protocols designed to interrogate a human user will simply block or break autonomous transactions at scale. Trying to force-fit agents into rails built for people will inevitably limit the viability of agentic commerce.
Alternative payment methods point to a different model. Tokenised credentials, persistent mandates and account-to-account schemes can support pre-authorised, rules-based transactions that do not depend on real-time human input at checkout. That is what will unlock the multi-trillion-dollar opportunity that analysts see in agentic commerce over the coming decade, not layering more friction onto cards.
In 2026, the focus needs to shift from keynote slides at industry events to concrete product work that moves the needle. Leading global merchants, including those working with Boku, are already piloting agent-assisted journeys, autonomous replenishment flows and AI-driven optimisation behind the scenes. The most credible partners in this space are simultaneously fixing today’s challenges around local acceptance, subscriptions and embedded distribution, while also engineering the rails that AI-native commerce will run on as consumer demand accelerates.
Subscriptions evolve beyond card
The subscription model now permeates nearly every corner of consumer life, from streaming services and grooming products to AI tools and everyday essentials. Far from the waning popularity some analysts have predicted, the subscription sector is projected to surpass $1 trillion globally by 2030, with substantial expansion driven by emerging markets across APAC and LATAM where local payment methods dominate consumer preferences.
Card-based recurring billing, however, comes with inherent weaknesses that erode revenue: failed retries due to expired details, unexpected churn from authentication hurdles, and renewal friction that merchants cannot fully mitigate. These are not operational shortcomings but baked-in constraints of traditional card infrastructure.
Local payment methods designed for subscriptions sidestep these pitfalls entirely. Carrier billing, wallet-linked recurring payments and account-to-account authorisations deliver superior retention, minimised failures and enhanced customer lifetime value.
Heading into 2026, forward-thinking subscription providers will reposition LPMs from optional extras to core infrastructure, prioritising seamless convenience and tailored experiences aligned with local habits.
Subscriptions bundle up
With payment systems becoming more flexible, the way merchants connect with customers will transform too. Astute merchants in 2026 will go beyond direct sales and look to tap into fresh audiences via bundling partnerships with telcos, device makers, ISPs and app platforms.
At Boku we’re seeing this up close. Our bundling infrastructure now serves 48 million subscribers through these precise channels – streaming services packaged into mobile plans, gaming subs woven into device marketplaces. These approaches succeed because they align with existing customer habits and offer familiar payment options.
Traditional payment systems struggle here, as card infrastructure resists seamless integration into distribution networks shaped by local preferences. Contemporary payment platforms bridge that gap effortlessly. This capability drives efficient expansion into markets beyond crowded direct-to-consumer routes.
Payments are becoming a strategic growth lever
Across all of these shifts, there’s a clear pattern. Payments are no longer a background utility, but a strategic lever for growth, loyalty and resilience. Through 2026, merchants will move increasingly towards solutions which go beyond accepting funds. Now, they need solutions which help them understand their customers better, enter new markets with confidence and continuously improve the experience at the point of payment.
For Boku, and for the wider ecosystem, the opportunity lies in combining global access with local intelligence and long-term partnership, so that every transaction becomes a moment of value creation rather than just another line in the ledger.
